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Schlesinger Working Group -- Current Research

After the completion of its regional democracy series, the Schlesinger Working Group participated as members of the broader ISD family of program in a non-permanent working group and series examining America's Role in the World as we approach the 2008 Presidential elections. The group began meeting in November 2006. Core members for this working group were drawn from the Board of Directors of ISD, the Schlesinger Working Group and Georgetown University faculty. The final report from this series will be available in the Spring of 2008. For more information on the group and its findings please click, Research, Armerica's Role.

The Schlesinger Working on Strategic Surprise will reconvene in the spring of 2008 with meetings scheduled for February 25th and April 28th. One of the goals of the America's Role in the World Working Group was to identify several new situations and scenarios that could be relevant for further detailed exploration by the Schlesinger Working Group. One such scenario identified was the serious threat to American security posed by global warming. According to recent reports by the CNA Corporation, IPCC, CSIS, and CNAS, global climate change serves as a "threat multiplier" increasing the likelihood of massive population shifts around the world, severe water scarcity, energy shortages, and political instability in weak/fragile states. These reports also suggest that global warming may usher in the renaissance of nuclear power, escalating proliferation concerns. Though there have been many studies examining the potential effects of climate change, there have been few attempts to investigate its impact on U.S. foreign policy and national security. In the spring of 2008, the Schlesinger Working Group will examine how the asymmetrical regional impacts of climate change, migration pressures and energy vulnerabilities will shape global political relationships and alignments. Our focus will be on the possible implications of these climate change impacts for U.S. foreign policy and U.S. relations with (a) allies and major partners, (b) conflict parties and weak states and (c) international institutions. Finally, members will discuss possible surprise scenarios that may arise due to global warming.