ISD Annual Report, 2008-2009

Schlesinger Working Group Reports

Since its inception, the Schlesinger Working Group has produced fourteen publications. Its most recent report, "Strategic Surprises that May Face the Obama Administration," was published in February 2009.

From the Latest Report:

Meeting on October 6 and November 24, 2008, the working group, made up of foreign policy experts from the public, private, and academic fields, focused on the fast-shifting geopolitical landscape the Obama administration will inherit. Forces at work, including the current financial crisis, will constrict President Obama's ability to mitigate and manage strategic surprises that could arise during his first term in office.

The working group identified four categories of surprise:

1. Homeland Surprises: Events that take place within the United States severely testing U.S. crisis management capability, even though their origins may be foreign. Examples include terrorist attacks on infrastructure, a health pandemic, an electronic cyber attack, or a natural catastrophe.
2. Major Geopolitical Shift Surprises: Unexpected destabilization in one or more important states possibly triggered by direct or second order effects of the 1) global financial crisis (examples include China, Iran, Nigeria, and Taiwan); or 2) the sudden loss of a pivotal leader in a critical country (examples include Egypt and Saudi Arabia).
3. Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Breakout Surprise: Negatively, Iran develops a nuclear weapon, or the Pakistan military loses control of weapons. Or the reverse may occur, creating a positive development: North Korea reaches agreement to give up nuclear weapons, or Iran makes a strategic choice to cooperate on nuclear matters as part of a larger "grand" bargain with the Obama administration.
4. Surprise Multilateral Cooperation Patterns: Ambitious leadership pushes for harmonized and successful multilateral action on climate change and/or a Russia, China, and U.S. concert to support Iran sanctions, pressuring Tehran to engage seriously. Multilateral economic diplomacy in the G-20-if successful-could also spill into other multilateral fields. Such moves could establish constructive momentum and a pattern of sustained cooperation across diverse issue areas among states. Alternatively, despite positive atmospherics, efforts for major multilateral breakthroughs on security, trade, climate, and financial issues collapse in mutual recrimination.

Group Reports

ISD in the News

Schaffer: How the Kashmir Dispute Affects Security in South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations, 2009

Schaffer: India Abroad Interview's Howard Schaffer on Kashmir, India Abroad, 2009

Wu: How the Georgetown Community Views the Internet: A Three Module Wiki-based Survey in Early 2008, ISD, 2008