The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is more economically powerful, militarily capable, and politically connected than at any time in the past, and its growing national power increasingly poses a threat to U.S. and Western interests in the Indo-Pacific. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which frequently draws upon historical global oppression of China—like the Century of Humiliation—to stir up nationalist fervor, is bent on achieving “national rejuvenation” by the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the PRC in 2049. Though “national rejuvenation” lacks a formal definition, experts understand it to mean the development of an integrated military, economic, and political strategy to displace the United States from supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, and ideally even the broader global order.
Such displacement—leaving China all but in charge—would threaten the viability of a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) for a number of reasons. Politically, as bolstered by economic interdependence and through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, China is increasingly in a position to coerce diplomatic support for its initiatives worldwide and in multilateral fora. These initiatives include marginalizing support for Taiwan’s autonomy. The isolation and steady dismantling of a vibrant democracy and potential hostile takeover of an autonomous state would directly implicate Indo-Pacific safety and security. Militarily, Chinese preeminence would likely fuel an arms race in the region. In addition to China’s disproportionately powerful military, its relationships with North Korea and Russia threaten other powerful regional players, like South Korea and Japan, in part due to ongoing territorial disputes. Economically, the East and South China Seas, home to the critical Malacca, Sunda, Lombok, and Makassar straits, facilitate more than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide. China, which has a history of bullying its neighbors to conform to its baseless and legally debunked Nine Dash Line territorial claims, cannot be a responsible steward of such an economically vital global commons.
For those reasons and more, the United States cannot let itself be displaced. By contrast, it must increase its power in the Indo-Pacific. The Biden Administration has already gone to great lengths to message U.S. commitment to Indo-Pacific security: the region is featured heavily in the 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy and the Administration’s approach is further particularized in its 2022 U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. This report presents a multi-domain set of recommendations for the United States to accelerate and expand these ongoing commitments to increase its relative power vis-à-vis China. What distinguishes this report from others is that its recommendations are centered around a common theme of empowering allies and partners, and thus strengthening the United States’ greatest advantage relative to China.