This report proposes a UN-led international conference in Istanbul to provide durable solutions for as many Syrian refugees as possible. The evolution of conditions in Syria creates a window of opportunity for voluntary, safe, and dignified returns. Arab states are beginning to normalize relations with Syria; Russia is promoting returns; ISIS no longer occupies Syrian territory; Iran faces increasing difficulties in its ability to supply oil to the Syrian regime; and the Assad government is looking to solidify its military gains. It is urgent to undertake this effort now because the stress on refugee hosting countries threatens to destabilize the region. Syrian refugees deserve a pathway towards dignified lives for themselves and their children.
Around three-quarters of Syrian refugees in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan have stated that they intend to return to Syria one day, and around six percent of them intend to return in the next 12 months, independent of a political solution. While the United 1 Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) outlines a series of comprehensive protection thresholds that must be met to transition from ‘Phase 1’ to ‘Phase 2,’ conditions in Syria merit a Phase 1.5 approach. Syria may be witnessing instability for a long period of time. Durable solutions must provide a bridge to support spontaneous returns, build the necessary conditions to enhance protection and sustainability of returnees, and work to improve conditions for refugees outside of Syria and the communities that host them.