The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have grown into significant middle powers over the past decades. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) nimbly exercise strategic autonomy through economic might, careful multi-alignment, credible self-defense strategic assets, and constructive diplomacy on the world stage. What can be called “the Khaleeji social contract,” a traditional yet dynamic social code through which the Gulf’s ruling families have invested in their people, has been instrumental in the rise of the Arab Gulf states. Now, as the age of fossil fuels declines and oil revenues gradually disappear, they are each in their own way extending this same dynamism to the energy transition, their security architecture, and diverse partnerships across the political and economic spheres. In a region renowned for its instability, the six constituent states of the GCC have proven remarkably resilient. Since 1979, they have weathered three major regional wars, the periodic collapse of oil prices, and the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. At the same time, they have cultivated cohesive national identities and initiated political reforms to enhance their legitimacy while maintaining traditional familial dynastic control. The ruling families, which can number in the thousands, have fulfilled the Khaleeji social contract by fostering economic growth, sharing hydrocarbon wealth with their citizens, and investing in infrastructure, security, and education. Indeed, their Human Development Index (HDI) scores rank among the highest in the world. Despite their success, however, they face a new challenge: how to maintain stability, security, and prosperity in the face of climate change as global demand drops for the fossil fuels that have funded the social contract and temperatures in the Gulf soar.
Today, U.S. policy should support the Arab Gulf’s entrepreneurialism rather than get trapped in a zero-sum game with China over Cold-War-like spheres of influence. As the Arab Gulf states face new challenges in the 21st century, they are updating their social contracts to meet the moment. Instead of standing idly by, these states are expanding their technological, economic, and security boundaries in pursuit of improvement. It is this pursuit that will steward their growth in the next decades.